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Process
Part 1: Get the data you need
Which data do you need to calculate the Pythagorean win percentage (make a list)?
1. 2. 3. ... What are these values for the New York Yankees for the 2015 season?
1. 2. 3. ... What are these values for the New York Yankees for the 2016 season?
1. 2. 3. ... What is the date and source you used for this data?
Part 2: Based on this data and the formula answer these questionsUse today's date one year ago for last year stats. Use today's date for current year's stats.
Do this for last year's stats: 1. What is the expected win percentage you found for that date using the formula? 2. What was the actual percentage based on the Yankees actual wins and losses as of the date you pulled the data? 3. What is the rate at which the Yankees scored runs (per game) as of the date? 4. What is the rate at which the Yankees allowed runs (per game)? 5. After 160 games, how many runs would you have expected the Yankees to have scored if they continued to score runs at the same rate? 6. If they wanted to have 100 wins at the end of the 160 games, how many more runs could they have allowed according to the formula? Do this for the current year's stats: 1. What is the expected win percentage you found for that date using the formula? 2. What was the actual percentage based on the Yankees actual wins and losses as of the date you pulled the data? 3. What is the rate at which the Yankees scored runs (per game) as of the date? 4. What is the rate at which the Yankees allowed runs (per game)? 5. After 160 games, how many runs do you expect the Yankees to score if they continue to score runs at the same rate? 6. If they want to have 100 wins at the end of the 160 games, how many more runs could they allow according to the formula? Assume that the rate of runs allowed remains consistent. Part 3: Based on this data and the formula answer these questions
You may pick a a different team. One from the past and that team this year.You pick a team of your choice and go through the same process. You can use any year and any team. If you're not a Yankees fan, try the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers, they beat the Yankees in the 1955 World Series! Or try the Mets! My favorite Mets team is the 1986 Mets. They beat The Red Sox in the 1986 World Series! How about the 1927 Yankees, the team with Babe Ruth and Lou Gherig?!
Note: Since the original incarnation of the Pythagorean expectation formula, many versions have surfaced. It is common for statisticians to use an exponent of 1.83 instead of 2 to get a better prediction.
